Twitter Reality

Quidel (QDEL) soars on flu diagnostics then gets cold: End of TR (Twitter Reality) Portfolio 09/11/09

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:18:00 -0400

Sold QDEL at $16.99 (-8.7%) [Bought at open for $18.60]

Quidel pre-announced yesterday that it would post record Q3 profits on its flu diagnostic tests. QDEL soared after hours yesterday to 19 and opened today at $18.60, reaching of high of $18.81 before it began to decline to close at it low. This gave TR its worse loss in four months.

Although the TR portfolio has been relatively successful in its run since 1/12/09, the tide has definitely turned. In the first quarter of the year, the overall trend was that any good news about a stock (and the associated Twitter buzz) foreshadowed the stock charging out of the gate at the open. Since then, the overall trend has been to take profits when a stock surges at the open. It would appear that we are seeing two sides of a behavioral pattern. Earlier in the year, buyers were looking for opportunities to get in the market. Now, with a great many investors already in the market, they are looking for opportunities to sell and take profits when a stock takes off. Despite trying many different metrics and approaches to evaluate Twitter buzz vs. short term performance, TR cannot fight this tide.

So, TR in its present form is closing shop. In the coming weeks I will be getting back to doing more trading based on real-time information, along the lines of some of the earlier postings. I will be doing this in stealth mode, at least for a little while.

I would like to thank everyone who viewed TR and those who gave feedback, both positive and negative. Special thanks to Phil Pearlman for suggesting I set up this blog in the first place. It’s been fun!

Happy Trading,

Sandy (mandelbrot)

Final TR Portfolio scoreboard (started on 1/12/09):

Number of trades (closed): 118

Winners: 52%

Average P&L per trade: +.6%

TR pick for 9/11: QDEL

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 12:08:32 -0400

SWHC shoots upward but TR killed on opening trade: End of trading day for TR (Twitter Reality) Portfolio 09/10/09

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 17:15:27 -0400

Sold SWHC for $5.99 (-5.1%) [Bought at open for $6.31]

Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC) rose today on strong profits in Q1. Despite the rise, buying at the open was not a good way to go, even with the overall market rising from the open. A bad fill at the open didn’t help either. There was considerable buzz about the stock, but it was not reflected in an upward push during the trading day. Looks like we shot ourselves in the foot on this one…

TR Portfolio scoreboard (started on 1/12/09):

Number of trades (closed): 117

Winners: 53%

Average P&L per trade: +.7%

TR pick for 9/10: SWHC

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 11:12:03 -0400

TR on 9/4, 9/8, and 9/9: No picks (out of market)

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 21:04:39 -0400

TR on 9/3: No picks (out of market)

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 20:43:57 -0400

TR on 8/28, 8/31, 9/1, and 9/2: No picks (out of market)

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 01:08:56 -0400

TR on 8/27: No picks (out of market)

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 23:23:46 -0400

TR on 8/24, 8/25, and 8/26: No picks (out of market)

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 13:21:57 -0400

The market takes off and CRM flies: End of trading day for TR (Twitter Reality) Portfolio 08/21/09

Fri, 21 Aug 2009 17:23:00 -0400

Sold CRM at $53.67 (+3.1%) [Bought at open for $52.07]

The market soared today helping punctuate an upswing in salesforce.com (CRM) generated by a great earnings report after-the-bell yesterday and an upgrade. This is the second time that TR has made a profit off CRM and the buzz associated with it.

TR Portfolio scoreboard (started on 1/12/09):

Number of trades (closed): 116

Winners: 53.4%

Average P&L per trade: +.7%

TR pick for 8/21: CRM

Fri, 21 Aug 2009 11:02:40 -0400

TR on 8/20: No picks (out of market)

Wed, 19 Aug 2009 20:49:40 -0400

TR on 8/14, 8/17, 8/18, and 8/19: No picks (out of market)

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 22:22:23 -0400

TR on 8/13: No picks (out of market)

Wed, 12 Aug 2009 21:48:59 -0400

TR on 8/7, 8/10, 8/11, and 8/12: No picks (out of market)

Thu, 06 Aug 2009 21:59:05 -0400

TR on 8/6: No picks (out of market)

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 23:39:59 -0400

TR on 7/31, 8/3, 8/4, and 8/5: No picks (out of market)

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 23:46:50 -0400

TR on 7/30: No picks (out of market)

Wed, 29 Jul 2009 21:48:11 -0400

TR on 7/27, 7/28, and 7/29: No picks (out of market)

Sat, 25 Jul 2009 12:14:45 -0400

ALGN surges but flat from open: End of trading day for TR (Twitter Reality) Portfolio 07/24/09

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 17:05:36 -0400

Sold ALGN at $11.46 (-.3%) [Bought at open for 11.49]

Align Technology surged at the open based on a fantastic earnings report after the close. ALGN then dipped, came back to near the opening price, and was more or less flat the rest of the trading day. So, in this case, the buzz moved the price significantly (+21%) but had no followthrough during the session.

TR Portfolio scoreboard (started on 1/12/09):

Number of trades (closed): 116

Winners: 52.9%

Average P&L per trade: +.7%